Odds Of Getting Bad Beat Jackpot ==================== Odds Of Getting Bad Beat Jackpot; Is losing with four of a kind a once in a lifetime experience? - Poker Forums ====================
Poker Players in Detroit Hit Biggest Bad Beat Jackpot in U.S. History ..Stay updated on High Stakes PokerLocal casino has a Jackpot where Aces odds of getting bad beat jackpot Full of Tens is beaten by Quads or better. Must use both hole cards in Holdem. Anybody know the ..
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Once you add multiple tables into the mix, the numbers get even more depressing.
If you have four tables, all getting dealt hands at the exact same rate, statistically one table will hit a bad beat after getting dealt 10,597 hands. (Well, somewhere in those hands it will happen. Again, we're going to assume they get it on the very last hand dealt.)
In this scenario, the winner and loser of the hand both make money, the table share players each lose around 0, and the other 30 players in the room on other tables all lose ,597 each. The more tables you add, the more losers you will have.viagra dosage
Posted December 11, 2009 · Report post
Hey guys. I was playing a NLHE tourney on pokerstars earlier tonight (UK) and I lost to quad queens after I had flopped quad jacks. The flop came QJJ - I check and he checks behind - turn comes Q - he bets - I raise - he pushes - I snap call and the river comes Q - he turns over Q9
Either way it was a pretty damn bad beat. I checked the odds out and got the following as indicated below. Has anyone else on here ever lost to higher quads?
The reason you multiply by 120 is because the since we're seeing it to the river, the order in which the cards doesn't matter. There are 5! = 5*4*3*2*1 = 120 different ways of dealing those particular 5 cards.
Same as pair vs pair. This should not come as a surprise since we're seeing all 7 cards.
So the probability of being dealt quads is 0.00003555 + 0.00003555 = 0.0000711%
This translates to about 1,406,988.063 - 1 odds
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Poker Digest Vol. 3, No. 24, November 17 - 30, 2000
In the first article of this series dealing with bad-beat jackpots, we saw a few basic ideas about computing probabilities of bad-beat jackpot occurrences. One of these ideas is the fact that we are interested in semi-deals, and we determined the total number of semi-deals possible in a 10-handed hold'em game. We shall continue to call this number X and, in fact, presented it in all its glorious digits last time.
We worked out a simple example for hold'em and observed what happens when one loosens the restriction that both hole cards must play in order for a hand to qualify. We also worked out what tends to happen as the number of players in the game changes. We then promised a more detailed look at hold'em, so let's do it!
Let's first clarify our rules for qualification of a hand. All of the results we mention are for a 10-handed game. For a player's hand to qualify, the player must use the best hand she can make and both of her hole cards must play. Thus, a player holding 4-5 of spades with the 6-7-8-9 of spades on board does not have a qualifying hand because her best hand is a straight flush to the nine of spades which uses only one card in her hand. Finally, one last restriction is that in the case of four-of-a-kind, the player must have a pair in the hole for her hand to qualify.
I decided to directly compute the probability of bad-beat qualifying semi-deals which means counting the total number of qualifying semi-deals and then dividing by X to get the probability. Little did I realize as I started the computation just how ugly it was going to get. I realized ahead of time it was going to be a fairly complex job and would exemplify all the features of this kind of problem. What are those features?
First, the problem should be broken into smaller subproblems none of which in themselves are wildly difficult.
Second, the real problem is a bookeeping one of keeping track of the smaller subproblems, making sure everything is counted at least once, and eliminating multiple counting of the same semi-deals.
Third, one is dealing with large numbers -- increasing the chances of errors when entering them in equations and recording them.
As it has turned out, I have not had time to compute all of the probabilities I originally envisaged and, because of time pressure, I have not had time to do the kind of careful check I normally like to perform. Nevertheless, some values have emerged and I hope to fill in two missing values by the time this series ends.
Here's a brief sketch of how the problem is broken down. In the first article we saw how easy it is to count the number of semi-deals with two players having quads. It's easy is because there are severe restrictions on the board, and there is only one way to complete the board to four-of-kind via a player's hand. The first extension of this is to allow straight flushes, that is, we are computing the probability of a bad beat qualifying semi-deal for any four-of-a-kind or better being beaten. This still isn't so bad because even though the restrictions on the board are not as severe, the number of ways the boards can be completed to qualifying hands is easy to determine. It turns out the probability of a semi-deal occurring in which four-of-a-kind or better loses is .00001067. This is essentially one in a 100,000.
Most cardrooms with bad-beat jackpots have the minimum hand as aces full of something. Frequently, the something seems to be 10s or jacks. Once we have to start considering aces-full, the number of subcases proliferates incredibly. You must consider many different patterns involving aces on the board, and you must consider whether aces-full lose to another hand with aces-full, or lose to another hand with either quads or a straight flush. When aces-full loses to another aces-full, we must use inclusion-exclusion arguments to get exact values for many subcases. This is very time consuming.
I shall be posting full details of the computation on my web site, but I will be surprised if anyone gets through it. I already have 28 pages of output and there are several places where details are omitted. Aces-full-of-jacks and aces-full-of-queens have yet to be included as well.
Here are the numbers I know so far. The probability of a bad beat qualifying semi-deal when aces-full-of-10s must be beaten is .00004803, when aces-full-of-kings must be beaten is .00001452, and when any four-of-a-kind must be beaten is .00001067.
In rough terms this is saying the probability of four-of-a-kind or better being beaten is 1-in-a-100,000; the probability of aces-full-of-kings or better being beaten is 1 in 69,000; and the probability of aces-full-of-10s or better being beaten is 1 in 21,000. A hold'em table that is open 24 hours a day every day and averages 30 hands an hour generates more than 21,000 hands a month. This gives you an idea of the scales involved in the above probabilities. We shall say more later about the frequency of bad-beat jackpots.
As a final observation, note that the above probabilities are for the occurrences of qualifying semi-deals. Not all semi-deals are played out to the end; that is, some players who would have eventually had a qualifying hand may fold early in the action. Thus, the probability of a bad-beat jackpot actually occurring is even smaller than the numbers determined above. How much smaller is impossible to measure accurately as it depends on the looseness of the game.
Home | Publications | Preprints | MITACS | Poker Digest | Poker Computations | Feedback website by the Centre for Systems Science last updated 9 September 2001
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Caesars over in Atlantic City also have a massive Bad Beat Jackpot up for grabs and at the last time of checking it stood at a very respectable 3k.
So should you be visiting the area and want to get down to some serious poker playing action then that is one casino well worth visiting.how long does viagra last
By Steve Beauregard
(Editor’s Note: Due to the constantly changing poker room promotions, we have stopped updating this page as of January 2017. Poker rooms were adding or dropping their jackpots at a pace we couldn’t keep up with.)
Serious poker grinders hate them. Professional poker players despise them. Tourist fish like me love them: the bad beat jackpot.
A poker room that offers bad beat jackpots is giving the occasional live poker player a thrill above and beyond just chasing that flush draw – it’s the opportunity to take home some serious money. In some cases, even life changing money.
A Pair of Aces Gets You Half-Way to a Possible Bad Beat Jackpot
Live pros and the card room regulars who try to supplement their income hate the bad beat jackpot, as it takes money away from each pot, and reduces their hourly rate. Yet for folks like you or I, who only get to Las Vegas a few times a year (if that), the bad beat jackpot is like getting a free lotto ticket while you happen to be playing poker.
A friend of mine played on Party Poker back in the day. One night while playing / limit (the lowest limit you could play and still qualify for the bad beat jackpot), he flopped a Royal Flush. Not too bad, and a guaranteed winner of course. But when the river card came out to be a Queen, putting two on the board, it also gave another player at the table four queens. Losing with four of a kind is a brutal, rare loss, but since this was a bad beat jackpot table, the loser of this hand took home the “loser’s share” of the jackpot, ,000, while my friend, got ,000 for creating the bad beat.
If you had a night playing / limit where you won 0, you’d be ecstatic. So imagine winning ,000 (or much more) playing at such low stakes! This is the appeal of bad beat jackpots for the recreational player.
Las Vegas Poker Rooms With Bad Beat Jackpots
Unfortunately, those of you looking for Las Vegas poker rooms that offer a bad beat jackpot won’t find too many. And some that do offer them are “locals” casinos, rather than Strip poker rooms.
As mentioned, many of the big Strip rooms don’t offer a jackpot promotion. Some that don’t, (Bellagio, Aria, Wynn and MGM), are considered by the pros and serious poker players as the best poker rooms in Las Vegas. But as I’ve mentioned before, most serious players do not like bad beat jackpots as they consider it to be just added rake taken away. And most of the top poker room ranking stories are compiled by serious poker players – thus the prevalence of non BBJ rooms in the top rankings.
The one Strip property offering a bad beat jackpot is the Flamingo Poker Room . It starts at ,000.
Another Strip poker room with a BBJ can be found at the Venetian. After having one back in 2014, the Venetian ditched their jackpot, but brought it back in 2017. It starts at ,000.
Off Strip, you’ll find bad beat jackpots at the Orleans, and at the popular Station chain of casinos. These joints are “locals” casinos, are mostly found miles away from the Strip. If you’re a tourist like me who sticks to the Strip and downtown, you’re unlikely to ever step foot in one of these poker rooms, however we’ll touch on it briefly.
Called the Jumbo Hold’em Splash for Cash, this BBJ pays the “loser” ,000, while the winner gets ,000. Every other player at the table where the jackpot hit gets ,000. In addition, players at every other Stations Casino chain of poker rooms gets money added to their 20 pots.
The qualifying hand starts off as four aces beaten. It’s subsequently lowered at different intervals when not hit. While there are seven different Stations casinos, only five have poker rooms. Here are the five that contribute to the jackpot: Green Valley Ranch Red Rock Casino Resort & Spa Palace Station Santa Fe Station Boulder Station
The nice, friendly and fun little room at Treasure Island doesn’t have a bad beat jackpot. Like some other rooms, it offers instead, high hand jackpots, in which you’ll win a bonus if you happen to have the best hand for either that day, or a specified hour. In this case, it is 0 for a royal flush, for example.
Other rooms like at the Mandalay Bay, don’t offer a bad beat jackpot either, but have other similar high hand bonuses, (some progressive ones too), in which you’ll receive anywhere from 0 to 0 for hitting a certain hand during the promotional hours. The Mandalay Bay runs their high hand bonus during football games and basketball games.
(Go here to read about the best low stakes poker room in Las Vegas).
Most of the MGM Resorts properties don’t offer a BBJ. The Monte Carlo has a mini bad beat and several high hand promotions, but mostly, if you’re love the added chance of scoring a big bad beat jackpot during your poker game, you should head to the Flamingo, Orleans, or one of the Stations Casinos.
I had detailed a huge bad beat jackpot seen in Caesars Entertainment poker rooms in Las Vegas, called the “Mega Beat” but it has since been discontinued. Below is what I wrote prior to the ending of the jackpot on 05/20/14: First let’s mention the largest bad beat jackpot in town. It involves seven of the poker rooms owned by the Caesars Entertainment chain of properties. By combining rooms, this jackpot is the largest in Sin City. Started in January of 2013, the jackpot has grown to over 0,000 at times. The loser of that hand, which took place at the Planet Hollywood, took home 2,000.
The Mega Beat Jackpot, as they call it, always has at least 0,000 in it. One interesting attribute of this Caesars Jackpot is that when it hits, any player sitting down in a game in one of the seven rooms will receive a share of the jackpot.
In its relatively short history, this player share has been anywhere from ,000 to just shy of ,000 (per player).
The seven poker rooms that are a part of the Caesars Entertainment Mega Beat Progressive Jackpot are as follows: Caesars Palace Harrah’s Las Vegas Flamingo Poker Room The Quad Resort and Casino The Rio Bally’s Planet Hollywood.female viagra pill
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